Chifley's speech is a good one. Mali's victory speech the other night a good crack too.
Liked this Manning and Luke! Reminded me of Antony Green's analysis of preference flows from the last federal election (https://antonygreen.com.au/fed2025-independent-two-party-preference-flows/). Takeaway being that Teal voters overwhelming preference the ALP over others. Will be interesting to run this analysis from the ONP angle.
I find the breakdown by housing very interesting! If national distribution between those three categories is about a third, does this spread mean people who own their homes outright more likely to be voting for one nation than people who rent? How does this square up with the suggestion that housing and cost of living scapegoated to immigration is the main driver, when the owner cohort would be the least effected by that?
"economic security and material improvement in living standards" is key. The rise of the far-right in Australia and elsewhere in the Global North is directly linked to the crisis of the neoliberal status quo.
Now that I think of it, you can get the 2021 census data in 2025 CED. There have been many redistributions since then that will definitely affect the results on the logit model and MRP
Chifley's speech is a good one. Mali's victory speech the other night a good crack too.
Liked this Manning and Luke! Reminded me of Antony Green's analysis of preference flows from the last federal election (https://antonygreen.com.au/fed2025-independent-two-party-preference-flows/). Takeaway being that Teal voters overwhelming preference the ALP over others. Will be interesting to run this analysis from the ONP angle.
I find the breakdown by housing very interesting! If national distribution between those three categories is about a third, does this spread mean people who own their homes outright more likely to be voting for one nation than people who rent? How does this square up with the suggestion that housing and cost of living scapegoated to immigration is the main driver, when the owner cohort would be the least effected by that?
"economic security and material improvement in living standards" is key. The rise of the far-right in Australia and elsewhere in the Global North is directly linked to the crisis of the neoliberal status quo.
https://alexwhite.org/2026/03/understanding-the-one-nation-earthquake/
Really great post, think the take on not underestimating is very important
Are the logit model coefficients average marginal effects or the log odds?
Would be keen to see this updated with the new census when it comes out so we can use 2025 CED given higgins, north sydney and bullwinkel.
Now that I think of it, you can get the 2021 census data in 2025 CED. There have been many redistributions since then that will definitely affect the results on the logit model and MRP
Good research - missing from the mainstream media (including the 9 Press).
Broadly consistent with this analysis, not to mention the housing theory of everything: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1467-8462.70008
Good to see this paper cite another one of my takes 😜